OBSTRUCTIVE sleep apnoea (OSA) is expected to rise dramatically across the USA over the next three decades, with new modelling suggesting almost half of adults aged 30–69 years could be affected by 2050.
In this prospective modelling study, researchers used historical prevalence data from a longitudinal cohort alongside demographic projections from validated population datasets and BMI trends derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort. An open cohort dynamic population simulation model was developed to forecast the burden of OSA in the US population between 2020–2050.
The model predicts a 34.7% relative increase in OSA prevalence, rising from 34.3% (95% UI: 34.0–34.4) in 2020 to 46.2% (46.0–46.4) by 2050, equating to 76.6 million cases. Sex-specific differences were significant: females are projected to experience a 65.4% relative increase, with prevalence climbing from 22.8% (22.5–23.0) to 37.7% (37.4–38.0), affecting 30.4 million individuals. Males, while starting from a higher baseline, will see a more modest 19.3% relative increase, from 45.6% (45.4–46.0) to 54.4% (54.2–54.7), corresponding to 45.9 million cases. The disproportionate growth among women represents a marked epidemiological shift in the burden of disease.
These findings show the scale of the challenge facing respiratory clinicians and health systems already under pressure from the economic and public health consequences of untreated OSA. As prevalence rises, particularly among women, a group historically underdiagnosed and underrepresented in sleep apnoea research, the need for targeted public health interventions, improved diagnostic access and optimised long-term management strategies becomes increasingly urgent.
Reference
Boers E et al. Projecting the 30-year burden of obstructive sleep apnoea in the USA: a prospective modelling study. Lancet Respir Med. 2025; DOI: 10.1016/S2213-2600(25)00243-7.
