REDUCING tobacco use among young people remains a major public health priority across the EU. A recent ecological study examined the impact of cigarette prices and age-of-sale legislation on smoking prevalence among individuals aged 15–24 years. Using data from five Eurobarometer waves spanning 2012 to 2023, the study included 12,087 participants across 26 EU Member States and employed fixed-effects panel regression to analyse policy effects while controlling for broader tobacco control measures and temporal trends.
Youth Smoking Trends and Price Effects
The analysis found that youth smoking prevalence decreased from 28.4% in 2012 to 22.2% in 2023, although this decline was not uniform across the period. A key finding was the association between cigarette pricing and smoking prevalence. Specifically, a 1 euro increase in inflation-adjusted cigarette prices per pack corresponded to a 3.4 percentage point reduction in smoking among male youths (95% CI: −6.40 to −0.45). No statistically significant effect was observed for females or across the EU as a whole, indicating that price measures may affect subpopulations differently.
Regional differences were particularly notable. In Southern Europe, cigarette price increases were linked to reductions in smoking among both male and female youths, while in Northern Europe, the effect was observed predominantly in males. By contrast, no clear associations were detected in Western or Eastern Europe, suggesting that local context, cultural factors, and enforcement intensity may play important roles in determining policy impact.
Age-of-Sale Laws and Policy Implications
The introduction of 18+ age-of-sale legislation for tobacco products did not show a significant association with youth smoking prevalence at the EU level. Researchers suggest that inadequate enforcement may limit the effectiveness of both pricing policies and age-of-sale restrictions, rather than the measures themselves being inherently ineffective.
This study highlights that, while cigarette price increases can reduce youth smoking in some populations, current EU-level taxation and age-of-sale policies are insufficient to achieve uniform reductions. Harmonised measures, combined with stronger enforcement and targeted interventions, are necessary to prevent new youth initiates and achieve the tobacco endgame. Policymakers should consider regional differences and gender-specific effects when designing strategies to reduce youth smoking across the EU.
Reference
Teshima A et al. Impact of cigarette prices and age-of-sale policies on smoking prevalence among youth in 26 European Member States (2012–2023): a longitudinal ecological study using repeated cross-sectional data. Lancet Reg Health. 2025; DOI:10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101511.
