MORE THAN 55,000 expected cancer cases were not diagnosed across seven high-income countries during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a new study from the International Agency for Research (IARC) on Cancer and the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership has found.
This was found to be as a result of widespread disruption to cancer diagnostic services caused by reluctance to seek care, lockdowns, or pressure on health systems.
Lead author Eileen Morgan, Cancer Surveillance Branch, IARC, Lyon, France, said: “This study offers a unique opportunity to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer incidence and stage at diagnosis using nationwide data on patients living with cancer, and to learn from those countries where disruptions were more limited.
“By comparing experiences across countries, the study provides valuable insights that inform future health system planning, strengthen resilience, and improve preparedness.”
16% of Cancer Diagnoses Missing
The study analysed population-based cancer registry data on 2.6 million patients across Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK.
Researchers examined trends in seven common cancer types between 2015 and 2020, comparing the number of cancers diagnosed during the COVID-19 pandemic with the number expected based on pre-pandemic trends.
Between April and December 2020, 16% of expected cancer diagnoses were missing.
The largest decreases were observed for prostate cancer (24%), female breast cancer (18%), and skin melanoma (18%).
Lung cancer and ovarian cancer were less affected.
The most substantial reductions occurred during the first months of lockdowns, from April to July 2020, when access to health services was most restricted.
Some of the steepest drops in diagnoses were observed in the UK and Ireland, whereas in Norway and New Zealand there were smaller disruptions and a faster recovery to expected diagnosis rates.
Researchers pointed to variations in health system resilience, public health responses and communication, access to primary care, and the continuity of cancer screening and diagnostic services to explain different patterns across countries.
Temporary suspensions of screening programmes and reduced access to general practice appointments are believed to have contributed to the dive in diagnoses, particularly for breast cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, and skin cancer.
Despite the drop, the study found relatively limited evidence of an immediate shift towards diagnoses of more advanced-stage cancers during 2020.
Ongoing Surveillance
Researchers warned that the long-term consequences remain uncertain and that continued monitoring is essential to determine whether delayed diagnoses will affect cancer outcomes and survival in the years ahead.
Ongoing surveillance is therefore necessary to determine whether the missing cancer cases were diagnosed later and whether long-term outcomes are impacted.
Senior author Isabelle Soerjomataram, Deputy Head, Cancer Surveillance Branch, IARC, Lyon, France, said: “A more detailed understanding of why some health systems were better able to withstand the pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic could provide valuable lessons for future crisis preparedness.
“These findings also offer important insights for governments and policymakers seeking to strengthen cancer care systems and maintain continuity of care during future crises.”
Reference
Morgan E et al. International disruptions to cancer diagnosis and stage at presentation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study. Lancet Oncol. 2026;27(6):738–750.
Featured image: StefanieMüller on Adobe Stock
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