Hepatitis C Elimination Initiative Could Prevent Deaths and Cut Costs

A PROPOSED hepatitis C elimination initiative in the United States was projected to substantially reduce chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, prevent an estimated 24,000 deaths and lower healthcare spending by an estimated $17.7 billion over the next decade. Chronic hepatitis C is a viral infection that affects the liver and can lead to serious complications, including liver cancer, if left untreated.

Using a validated microsimulation model, researchers compared the proposed national hepatitis C elimination initiative with the current standard of care between 2025 and 2044. The analysis suggested that expanding access to HCV treatment nationally could markedly reduce disease burden while generating significant cost savings.

Model Estimated Fewer Complications and Lower Healthcare Spending

The model incorporated HCV disease progression, incidence, diagnosis, treatment and healthcare costs across Medicare, Medicaid, privately insured, uninsured and justice-involved populations.

By 2034, the initiative was projected to reduce the number of people living with HCV to approximately 100,000, compared with 1.3 million under the status quo.

Between 2025 and 2034, the model estimated that the initiative would prevent 20,000 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 49,000 cases of diabetes and 25,000 cases of chronic kidney disease. It also projected 24,000 fewer deaths and an additional 220,000 life years over the same period.

The reduction in HCV-related disease was estimated to save $17.7 billion in healthcare spending during the first 10 years, with $12.2 billion of those savings expected to accrue to the federal government.

Benefits Were Projected to Increase Over Time

The researchers estimated that the advantages of the initiative would continue to grow beyond the first decade. Between 2025 and 2044, the projected health benefits were expected to more than double, while healthcare cost offsets were forecast to triple compared with the 10-year estimates.

Although the findings were based on a validated microsimulation model rather than observed clinical outcomes, the projections suggested that broader access to HCV treatment could substantially reduce HCV-related morbidity and mortality while offsetting long-term healthcare expenditure.

Reference

Chhatwal J et al. Projected health benefits and cost offsets from the United States National hepatitis C elimination initiative. Nat Commun. 2026;DOI:10.1038/s41467-026-74734-1.

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