CANCER workforce expansion could significantly reduce global cancer mortality by 2050, with the greatest benefits projected from scaling up diagnostic, imaging, and surgical personnel, according to new modelling data examining 200 countries and territories.
Global Cancer Workforce Gaps Persist
Researchers used the Global Cancer Workforce microsimulation model to estimate how scaling up 18 different workforce personnel types could affect mortality from 17 cancers between 2030–2050.
The analysis incorporated demographic, epidemiological, and health system factors linked to cancer incidence and survival. Workforce density estimates were drawn from multiple international datasets, while expert opinion surveys from 86 specialists across 16 countries informed how personnel contributed to different stages of cancer care.
The findings showed that major disparities in the cancer workforce are likely to remain by 2050, particularly across Africa, where workforce shortages were projected to be most severe. These shortages were associated with poorer outcomes and reduced access to timely diagnosis and treatment. Researchers examined both individual personnel types and broader workforce cadres, including multidisciplinary teams working within specific specialties.
Diagnostic Personnel Show Greatest Impact
Among individual personnel categories, surgeons were associated with the largest projected reduction in global cancer mortality: 3.64% (95% uncertainty interval: 2.68–4.66). The strongest effects were seen in Africa, Asia, and Oceania, although results varied substantially between countries.
When workforce cadres were analysed, scaling up diagnostic and imaging personnel produced the greatest projected benefit, reducing global cancer mortality by 7.61% (95% uncertainty interval: 5.23–9.88). Researchers suggested that earlier diagnosis and improved access to imaging services may underpin these gains. However, the effect differed across regions and countries, highlighting the importance of tailoring cancer workforce planning to local healthcare needs.
Comprehensive Investment Could Transform Outcomes
The model also examined broad expansion across all workforce levels, including personnel with varying years of education and training. Comprehensive cancer workforce scale up was projected to reduce cancer mortality by more than 50% in 55 countries, with the largest improvements expected in Africa, Central America, and southern Asia.
Researchers concluded that strengthening the cancer workforce will be essential to improving cancer survival and reducing preventable deaths globally.
They also highlighted the potential role of digital health solutions and role delegation strategies in supporting workforce capacity. The authors stated that policy makers should prioritise data driven workforce planning as part of wider cancer control strategies.
Reference
Ward ZJ et al. Estimating the impact of scaling up workforce personnel on global cancer mortality from 2030 to 2050: a simulation-based analysis of 17 cancers and 18 personnel types. The Lancet Oncology. 2026;27:569-79.
Featured image: NKCoolper on Adobe Stock
