A fully funded UK centre for in-silico drug modelling could deliver £2.4bn in health benefits and save the NHS £1.2bn over five years, says an Office of Health Economics (OHE) report.
The report, published on 21 October, estimates that UK CEiRSI (the UK Centre of Excellence for In-Silico Regulatory Science and Innovation) could generate 37,282 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).
Based at The University of Manchester, the centre aims to speed the use of computer simulation in developing and regulating medicines and devices.
Health benefits and savings
A QALY combines length and quality of life, with one equivalent to a year in perfect health. OHE applies the Treasury’s £70,000 valuation per QALY and discounts future benefits, bringing the estimate to £2.4bn from an undiscounted £2.6bn.
Industry could gain £325m globally, and the wider UK economy £21.9bn, though the authors warn that some benefits overlap and should not be added together.
What the forecast assumes
The model assumes the centre will help enable 14 new uses of medicines and devices by 2030, 12 of them devices and two medicines. Over 15 years, that could reach 77, with health benefits valued at £14bn. The estimates draw on a survey of 46 experts and OHE’s medium scenario.
These are modelled projections, not realised gains, and depend on funding, adoption and regulatory acceptance.
Reducing animal testing
Professor Alejandro Frangi, Executive Director, UK CEiRSI, says that modelling lets researchers “test ideas, treatments and devices using sophisticated computer models before, or alongside, conventional studies”.
The report adds that they could reduce animal testing and improve access to treatments for groups under-represented in trials, such as children and pregnant women.
Regulation and evidence hurdles
However, this method cannot yet replace conventional testing in every case, as modelling in this way must first be validated to show they reliably predict toxicity and other safety risks.
Regulatory acceptance is therefore critical, says Professor Sarah Sharples, Dean of the Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester University. Rules for accepting computer-based evidence “are being written now, and the countries that help write those rules will shape how these products are developed well beyond their own borders”.
The FDA’s April 2025 roadmap to cut animal testing, starting with monoclonal antibodies, signals regulatory interest, but wider use depends on the evidence.
Funding remains a key question
The question now is whether the centre can attract the funding it needs.
So far, UK CEiRSI has received £1m from the Medical Research Council and Innovate UK for its January 2025 pilot, short of the full funding OHE assumes.
A £20m government programme announced in September would fund four regulatory science centres for up to five years, but it is unclear whether UK CEiRSI will pursue a slice of this funding.
Featured image: S. Singha on Adobe Stock
- Author:
