PERSONALISED cancer risk modelling has revealed substantial variation in both lifetime and 10-year cancer risk across a large population cohort, with findings suggesting that future screening approaches may need to extend beyond age and sex alone.
Researchers projected individual probabilities of lifetime and 10-year cancer risk across the UK Biobank population while also estimating the potential reduction in risk associated with healthy behaviours. The analysis incorporated 118 distinct variables across 38 cancer specific models, enabling a broad assessment of variation in cancer risk among men and women.
Cancer Risk Distribution Across Populations
The findings demonstrated a rightward skew in lifetime cancer risk distribution, alongside considerable variation across the cohort. Median lifetime cancer risk among men was 29.5%: interquartile range (IQR), 8.4%. Among women, the median lifetime cancer risk was 21.0%: IQR, 8.8%.
When all modifiable risk factors were adjusted to an ideal state, lifetime cancer risk decreased substantially in both groups. For men, median lifetime risk fell to 20.5%: IQR, 3.9%. For women, the equivalent reduction was to 16.5%: IQR, 4.9%.
The data suggested that behavioural modification could have a meaningful impact on reducing overall cancer burden at the population level. Researchers highlighted that established risk factor modification strategies remain central to cancer prevention, despite increasing interest in emerging screening technologies.
Overlap Between Age Groups
The study also identified marked overlap in 10-year cancer risk between age groups, challenging assumptions that age alone is sufficient for determining screening eligibility.
Among men, those aged 50–59 years at the 90th percentile for cancer risk had a greater 10-year risk of 11.9% compared with men aged 60–70 years at the 25th percentile, whose risk was 11.8%. Similar overlap was observed in women. Women aged 40–49 years at the 90th percentile had a 10-year cancer risk of 7.4%, exceeding the risk observed among women aged 50–59 years at the 60th percentile: 6.8%, and women aged 60–70 years at the 20th percentile: 7.3%.
Implications For Future Screening
The findings suggested that personalised cancer risk assessment could help refine future screening strategies by identifying individuals at elevated risk despite younger age. Researchers concluded that discussions regarding future screening guidelines should account for factors beyond age and sex as further evidence becomes available.
The study also reinforced the potential value of modifiable risk factor reduction, with regard to lowering lifetime cancer risk across the population.
Reference
Butala NM et al. Projecting individualized probabilities of lifetime total cancer risk across a population. 2026;3(2):e2500209.
